Kelly simulations - first conclusions

I’ve used the simulation log file for the 1,000 seasons that I shared with you in the last post. Here are some of the metrics and conclusions one can draw from the data. When using the metric “Return /$” wagered for each season, flat betting beat Kelly 61.4% of the time and returned a higher average per season.

Compare Ret/$ Overall	Kelly	Flat
Best Using Ret/$	38.6%	61.4%
Average Ret/$ Per Season	$1.027	$1.044

However, when adding all the seasons together, the story changes. Kelly had lower average bet size and net. But when the “Ret/$” is computed Kelly outperforms flat betting.

All Seasons Totals	Kelly	Flat
Average Kelly Pct	5.49%
Average Bet Size	$64.29	$100.00
Average Net Per Bet	$3.58	$4.44
Total Ret/$ All Seasons	$1.056	$1.044
Maximum Season Gain	$7,215.89	$3,179.00
Maximum Season Loss	-$855.20	-$2,169.00

This makes Kelly look better, but there’s some deception in here. The Kelly numbers are skewed by the very good seasons. The next question is what does an average season look like. Of the 1,000 seasons there were 88 that resulted in 55 wins which is right on the number expected for average results.

Repeat Above for 55 Win Seasons	Kelly	Flat
Best Using Ret/$	29.5%	70.5%
Average Ret/$ Per Season	$1.027	$1.051
Average Kelly Pct	4.88%
Average Bet Size	$62.03	$100.00
Average Net Per Bet	$1.93	$5.05
Total Ret/$ All Seasons	$1.031	$1.051

Now the flat bettors could make the argument that with average results, flat is better than Kelly. Like I said before, something for everybody. There is a lot more studying to be done. I’ll continue over the next few days and post some more thoughts.