Before drilling down into
comparing the two simple strategies, I want to divide the data in segments by
price growth rates. I’m interested in seeing how the two strategies compare
during periods of slow movement, rapid growth, and rapid decline. To pick the
periods I wanted to use an index made up of several coins. There are multiple
indices out there, some based on market cap and some on sales. I wanted one
that also had downloadable daily history files. After looking at these, I
decided to build my own. Remember, initially these are only going to be used
for assessing growth periods.
I elected to start by using total
daily sales in USD. This only represents a portion of the total exchanged in
all currencies. But for my purposes, this is adequate. I also wanted to be able
to limit the period spanned (for future use). I wrote a program that reads the
data from the downloaded Yahoo daily price spreadsheets and did the
calculations necessary to sum all the USD volumes, then divided the USD volumes
for each coin by the total. I did this for the top 20 coins for the four
quarters ending with the first quarter of 2018. Not surprisingly, bitcoin ended
up being weighted at 49%. Following are the top 8 coins which represent 90% of
the total USD volume.
Coin
|
Index
|
Cum Index
|
BTC
|
0.4904
|
0.4904
|
ETH
|
0.1653
|
0.6556
|
LTC
|
0.0724
|
0.728
|
BCH
|
0.0689
|
0.797
|
XRP
|
0.0553
|
0.8522
|
IOT
|
0.0207
|
0.8729
|
EOS
|
0.0186
|
0.8915
|
NEO
|
0.0151
|
0.9066
|
Applying these, I generated the
following closing price index graph.
I’ll be able to select the time periods I want to focus on
to compare the two simple strategies. I’ll have these results in my next post.
Follow me at @ole44bill on Twitter to know when this occurs.
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