More data included in MLB run line back testing

In the previous post I presented the results from back testing a system for identifying potentially good wagers on run lines for MLB. It was based on a median line picked from multiple books for the 2017 season. I’ve now expanded the testing to include data from 3 more seasons, covering almost 10,000 past games. Following is a table summarizing the results.

2014-17 Run Line Wagers
Exp Ret	Number	Bet	Net	Ret/$
0.00 to 1.00	13631	$1,758,693	-$94,534	$0.95
1.00 to 1.05	4262	$585,064	$10,931	$1.02
1.05 to 1.10	1290	$158,015	$1,820	$1.01
1.10 to 1.15	271	$28,949	$1,119	$1.04
1.15 to 1.20	74	$7,552	$396	$1.05
1.20 to 1.25	22	$2,213	-$13	$0.99
1.25 above	10	$1,010	$415	$1.41
Grand Total	19560	$2,541,496	-$79,866	$0.97
Above 1.00	5929	$782,803	$14,668	$1.02
Above 1.05	1667	$197,739	$3,737	$1.02
Above 1.10	377	$39,724	$1,917	$1.05
Above 1.15	106	$10,775	$798	$1.07

The data supports the conclusion based on the 2017 data. But when you look at the breakdown by year it turns out 2017 was the 2^nd best year. The 2015 season was by far the best, while 2016 was pretty much break even, and 2014 was actually a losing season. There is just a lot of variability from season to season.

There were some other analytical questions I raised in the prior post that probably need to be addressed to see if the results can be made more consistent and profitable. Will betting those with favorite odds be better than those with dog odds? Would using the team’s location, visit or home, improve the results?

I’ve opened a topic on Sports Book Review in the Handicappers Think Tank forum (“Run Line Wager Analysis”) to deal with some of these questions. You are welcome to make comments, raise questions, or criticisms there. Follow me on Twitter, @ole44bill, to know when I post further analysis.