Run line analysis update

I looked back and had very slight profit on run line wagers in 2018. So, I decided to update my run line analysis from a year ago. I posted descriptions of my efforts in the following 3 posts.

http://ole44bill.blogspot.com/2018/05/sports-mlb-run-line-wagers.html

http://ole44bill.blogspot.com/2018/05/more-data-included-in-mlb-run-line-back.html

http://ole44bill.blogspot.com/2018/05/two-filtering-techniques-for-mlb-run.html

I had brought my data files up to date through the 2019 All-Star break. I repeated the analysis including this expanded data. The data I used, and analysis results, are included in this file.

https://www.dropbox.com7bvumicin2u6f7iMLB%20Run%20Line%20Analysis%202014-19.xlsx?dl=0

A new technique that I added this year was segmenting the data into 2 files. The segmentation was done on the last digit of the date. The purpose of doing this is as a sanity check. Looking at the results were a bit concerning. I hoped for more consistency between the 2 sets. Nonetheless, I decided to implement the results. We’ll see how it goes.

Follow me on Twitter, @ole44bill, to know when I post again. You can also Email me at ole44bill@gmail.com.

Crypto currency posts moved to new blog

The last post in this blog was on January 16^th, 2019. Here’s why. I became ill in August 2018. I was hospitalized for 3 weeks. I was put on TPN (a way of feeding through an IV). This was an attempt to resolve a chronic problem that started with emergency surgery in 2014. TPN did not work and was discontinued after 2 months. My condition continued to worsen through the remainder of 2018.

I underwent a major and risky surgery in January 2019, a few days after my last post. Recovery required 2 weeks in the hospital and 3 months in a skilled nursing facility. I’m now at home utilizing visiting nurses to treat the major surgical wound that is healing slowly. I will likely undergo a skin graft in about a month to speed the healing. My overall condition is poor, but I’m working on it.

The good news is that my enthusiasm for life is returning. In particular, my interest in data analysis and programming is back. Specifically, I am turning my attention to bitcoins again. So, I’m picking up the work I started in 2018 and will document my efforts on the blog https://billlanke.blogspot.com/. I had made 7 posts about crypto-currencies on this blog from April 7^th through May 2^nd. I will be repeating this effort and will be posting my findings on the other blog. This blog will now focus on sports only.

Follow me on Twitter @ole44bill to know when I post next on sports.

So why use like games?

My last post about the like games system wasn’t particularly encouraging, so why continue to use it? There are 3 reasons.

 1. Alternative wagers – Last time I said there were 3 primary wager types; spreads, totals, and money line. But there are also parlays and team totals. That means 5 wagers. All of these are also available for the 1^st half. That’s 10 potential wagers. If your model predicts a final score of 77-72, you can make an inference about the 10 wagers. But the set of likely scores provides an opportunity to count the results for each wager.

2.   You can look at the back tested results looking for filters that will eliminate potentially unprofitable wagers. I use expected returns as a filer. There could be other filters like location, favorites or dogs, spread size, or so on.

3.   Like games can be used in conjunction with other methods. The model we’re currently developing will use like games with 2 other predictors; a power rating system and KenPom’s projections.

KenPom projects the final score of every Division I basketball game on a daily basis. It has an unbelievable amount of statistics. The score projections are a subscription service, but it’s very reasonable, $19.95 per year.

Before describing the power system, I’ll look back at how approaches #1 and #2 worked out for the football season. Follow me on Twitter, @ole44bill, to know when this is posted.