So why use like games?

My last post about the like games system wasn’t particularly encouraging, so why continue to use it? There are 3 reasons.

 1. Alternative wagers – Last time I said there were 3 primary wager types; spreads, totals, and money line. But there are also parlays and team totals. That means 5 wagers. All of these are also available for the 1^st half. That’s 10 potential wagers. If your model predicts a final score of 77-72, you can make an inference about the 10 wagers. But the set of likely scores provides an opportunity to count the results for each wager.

2.   You can look at the back tested results looking for filters that will eliminate potentially unprofitable wagers. I use expected returns as a filer. There could be other filters like location, favorites or dogs, spread size, or so on.

3.   Like games can be used in conjunction with other methods. The model we’re currently developing will use like games with 2 other predictors; a power rating system and KenPom’s projections.

KenPom projects the final score of every Division I basketball game on a daily basis. It has an unbelievable amount of statistics. The score projections are a subscription service, but it’s very reasonable, $19.95 per year.

Before describing the power system, I’ll look back at how approaches #1 and #2 worked out for the football season. Follow me on Twitter, @ole44bill, to know when this is posted.